Fearless Winter Weather Prediction for the Big Country

Fearless's Winter Weather Prediction for the Big Country for 2024-2025

2024-2025 Winter Weather Prediction

As I do the weather for our Abilene radio stations, I sometimes hear what the weatherman from the TV stations says. When I read the forecast from the weather bureau, I think to myself,  "What are these guys thinking?" So, I’m stepping out with my own bold prediction for the 2024-2025 winter season before we compare it to the trusted Old Farmer's Almanac. Here’s my take on what Texas can expect this year, specifically the Big Country.

A Milder Winter Ahead

I predict that we’re in for a milder winter than what we've seen in recent years. I don’t believe we’ll have as many cold fronts or extreme winter storms. After experiencing the brutal snowpocalypse over the past few years, I’m confident that this type of frozen tundra event will not happen again. However, that doesn't mean we won't have some chilly days. I expect we’ll still see freezing temperatures, and we might even have some snow—though not until February 2025.

Moisture and Mild Conditions

While Abilene endured a dry, hot summer, I’m forecasting that we’ll get some moisture in mid-to-late November and again in early February. Overall, I think we’ll have an unseasonably warm and relatively mild winter.

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The Old Farmer’s Almanac Prediction

Now, let’s compare that to what the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts for our winter season. The Almanac calls for warmer-than-normal temperatures, with the coldest periods hitting in late January and early and late February. They also predict below-normal precipitation, with the best chances of snow in early and late February, pretty close to my prediction!

Which Forecast Will Prove Accurate?

The Old Farmer’s Almanac has a solid track record of accuracy, boasting an impressive 83.3% success rate for last year’s forecast. However, it did miss the mark on predicting the last three major winter storms that swept through Texas. Based on that, I’m hedging my bets that any significant freeze will happen in mid-to-late February, and we’ll see spring arriving earlier than usual in 2025.

Final Thoughts

In short, while both forecasts suggest a mild winter, my prediction leans toward even fewer cold fronts and a slightly warmer season overall. Let’s see which forecast plays out!