Who Can Predict the Weather Better, Punxsutawney Phil or the Old Farmers Almanac?
Who can better predict the weather, Punxsutawney Phil or the Old Farmers Almanac? That was the topic of discussion at my house on Sunday Groundhog day. Since Phil saw his shadow and went back into his hole, that means we’re in for six more weeks of cold winter weather.
My daughter (who is college educated) believes that groundhogs have some kind of internal sensor to predict the weather. I told her I thought my Old Farmers Almanac does a better job of “accurately” predicting the weather. That got me to thinking, how accurate are these two sources at predicting the weather? Here’s what I found out.
The people at Storm Fax.com have been keeping up with Phil’s predictions since 1887. According to their records the groundhog’s forecast accuracy is pretty low, Phil’s only been right 39 percent of the time. The folks at the Old Farmers Almanac appear to be doing a better job of predicting the weather correctly at least 51 percent of the time.
Punxsutawney Phil uses the sun and his shadow to call the weather. The Old Farmers Almanac uses scientific data gathered by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration based on a 30 year average and a “top-secret” math formula. No matter which one you rely on to keep up with the weather, I believe that nothing and/or no one is capable of predicting the weather weeks, months and even years in advance. What do you think?